Global Recession Risk

This book consists of a systematic analysis of the G7 doctrine of shared responsibility for reducing external imbalances to avoid a global recession originating in the devaluation of the dollar.

The US current account deficit approaches one trillion dollars, absorbing 75 percent of world surpluses. A fire sale of US debt could cause a global recession through disorderly devaluation of the dollar, raising interest rates and crashing stock markets. The G7 doctrine of shared responsibility intends to coordinate regional efforts. There is meagre political capital in most regions for these reforms. The devaluation of the dollar could be faster than G7 policy coordination. This book analyzes the main issues and individual regions, including China, Japan, the EU and the USA.

CARLOS M. PELÁEZ received a PhD and BS, Phi Beta Kappa, from Columbia University, City of New York, USA. He has published books, essays and articles worldwide. He was Director of Banco Chase and of the Rio de Janeiro Association of Banks and Vice President of Chase Manhattan Bank, USA. He is Managing Director of CMP Associates, USA.
CARLOS A. PELÁEZ received the AB in Statistics from the University of Chicago, USA. He published International Financial Architecture with Palgrave, as well as a book on globalization, and an essay on the global electric industry. He is an Associate Editor of the Journal of International Economic Law at the University of Pennsylvania Law School, USA.

Introduction, Scope and Content * Policy Contributions * China in Need of a New Paradigm * Japan after Deflation * The Euro Area * Currency Crashes * The Restrictions of Policy of the United States * Conclusion