Anatomy of the Bear

Description

How does one spot the bottom of a bear market? What brings a bear to its end?
There are few more important questions to be answered in modern finance. Financial market history is a guide to understanding the future. Looking at the four occasions when US equities were particularly cheap – 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982 – Russell Napier sets out to answer these questions by analysing every article in the Wall Street Journal from either side of the market bottom.
In the 70,000 articles he examines, one begins to understand the features which indicate that a great buying opportunity is emerging.
By looking at how markets really did work in these bear-market bottoms, rather than theorising how they should work, Napier offers investors a financial field guide to making the best provisions for the future.
This new edition includes a brand new preface from the author and a foreword by Merryn Somerset Webb.

Professor Russell Napier has been an adviser on asset allocation to global investment institutions for over 25 years. He is author of Anatomy of The Bear: Lessons From Wall Street’s Four Great Bottoms and Keeper of the Library of Mistakes, a business and financial history library based in Edinburgh. He has founded and runs a course called A Practical History of Financial Markets and also an online marketplace (ERIC) for the sale of high-quality investment research to institutions. Russell is Chairman of the Mid Wynd International Investment Trust.

Foreword by Merryn Somerset Web
Preface to the New Edition
Introduction
Part I August 1921
The road to August 1921
The course of the Dow – 1896-1921
Living with the Fed – A whole new ball game (I)
Structure of the market in 1921
The stock market in 1921
The bond market in 1921
At the bottom with the bear – Summer 1921
Good news and the bear
Price stability & the bear
Liquidity and the bear
The bulls and the bear
Bonds and the bear
Part II July 1932
The road to July 1932
The course of the Dow – 1921-29
Living with the Fed – A whole new ball game (II)
The course of the Dow – 1929-32
Structure of the market in 1932
The stock market in 1932
The bond market in 1932
At the bottom with the bear – Summer 1932
Good news and the bear
Price stability and the bear
Liquidity and the bear
The bulls and the bear
Bonds and the bear
Roosevelt and the bear
Part III June 1949
The road to June 1949
The course of the Dow – 1932-37
The course of the Dow – 1937-42
The course of the Dow – 1942-46
The course of the Dow – 1946-49
Structure of the market in 1949
The stock market in 1949
The bond market in 1949
At the bottom with the bear – Summer 1949
Good news and the bear
Price stability and the bear
Liquidity and the bear
The bulls and the bear
Bonds and the bear
Part IV August 1982
The road to August 1982
The course of the Dow – 1949-68
The course of the Dow – 1968-82
Structure of the market in 1982
The stock market in 1982
The bond market in 1982
At the bottom with the bear – Summer 1982
Good news and the bear
Price stability and the bear
Liquidity and the bear
The bulls and the bears
Bonds and the bear
Conclusions
– Strategic
– Tactical
– Then and now
Epilogue: Russell Napier, 2007
Bibliography
Table of figures
Acknowledgements

“Brilliant…a must-read” —Merryn Somerset Webb“I first read the second book on my list when it was published six or seven years ago and it is one of my favourites on investment. Russell Napier’s Anatomy of the Bear is a must-read for anyone who wants to understand the great sweep of investment history and, in particular, why markets suddenly decide to stop falling and start rising again.” —Tom Stevenson, The Daily Telegraph“an outstanding ‘must-read’ for any student of financial markets” —Marc Faber, author of Tomorrow’s Gold“Here’s a cushion for when you hit the bottom.” —The Financial Times“this is an outstandingly researched and lucidly written book, and with conclusions that are as important as they are compelling.” —Bill Jamieson, The Scotsman
“[amongst] the finest minds in Asian finance” —AsiaMoney“The best investment-related read of the year [2006].” —Bob Yerbury, CIO & CEO of Invesco Perpetual
“[one of the] year’s best investment books” —2008 Stock Trader’s Almanac“Keep this book in mind, for one day it will help you make a lot of money! Russell Napier has written a serious book for serious, patient investors.” —Hugh Sloane, Sloane Robinson LLP“Napier’s cogent, lucid explanation of the similarities and differences between historic financial declines makes this book an essential addition to the education of serious equity investors.” —Bill Strong, Equinox Partners and Kuroto Fund“If you want to make serious money you need to invest when others will not. Russell Napier has done all investors a service by providing a comprehensive examination of exactly these periods.” —Sandy Nairn, Edinburgh Partners“offers essential advice on how investors can determine what’s really going on. Russell Napier’s book is an excellent guide” —Financial Sense (Yiannis G. Mostrous)“an incredible resource for anyone wanting to learn from lessons of the past” —Jeff White, President, The Stock Bandit“An accessible yet thorough examination of bear markets for the investor or trader which provides valuable information on the history of market bottoms.” —Geoffrey H. Gannon / Steven Rosales, Value Blog Review